Thursday, July 3, 2025

Cherry-picking statistics

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BY TYLER DURDEN
THURSDAY, JUL 03, 2025 - 07:30 AM


Somalia

POLITICSSOMALIA

From Germany, 'war influencers' incite violence in Somalia


5 hours ago

Somali influencers used social media to spread radical content, urge violence, raise cash for arms and glorify war in Somalia — all from Germany, a joint investigation by DW and German public broadcaster ARD found. 

https://p.dw.com/p/4wsJI
Screenshot of Ayub Abdirizak in a video uploaded on Facebook in June 2024
Ayub Abdirizak can be found in many video clips online, including this one, uploaded to Facebook in June 2024

Ayub Abdirizak — or "Kabtan Ayub," as he is known to his social media followers — can easily reach hundreds of thousands of people with his posts on TikTok and Facebook. His messages often carry a blend of hatred for rival clans in Somalia and incitement to violence against them.

And he built his social media career in Germany, where he arrived in 2017 and remained for about seven years, operating under the radar of authorities while encouraging bloodshed back home.

"Take the guns and fight," Ayub urges his followers in a video he posted in late 2022. Offering what he calls practical advice from personal experience, he tells fighters to climb tall buildings to spot enemies at a distance. "Shoot any person on the highway once you see they are wearing a military uniform," he says. And it's not just the military who is the enemy in this scenario, Ayub tells his audience: People who refuse to let them enter buildings to take their rooftop positions should be "shot on the forehead" and left with a "bullet mark on his face."

As now uncovered by DW's investigative team in collaboration with the German public broadcaster ARD, German authorities eventually took notice of Ayub's efforts at incitement. We set out to trace his path — and study the destructive influence he wields. The investigation also examined the reach of another war influencer who continues to use Germany as a haven to call for violence back in Somalia.

A violent path

Somalia has grappled with armed conflict and volatile politics for decades. With the federal government constantly fighting the militant Al-Shabab group for more than a decade, longer-running deep-rooted conflicts between the clans that dominate Somali society have complicated efforts to build national unity and institute effective governance. Amid such instability, several Somali regions have forged their own political paths.

Ayub's story is closely tied to the often-violent rivalry between two regions in northern Somalia. Puntlandis governed by President Said Abdullahi Deni of the Majerteen clan, whom Ayub supports in his videos. Neighboring Somaliland declared independence in 1991, although the self-proclaimed republic failed to gain international recognition. Violence frequently erupts on the border between Puntland and Somaliland. 

Ayub Abdirizak with armed fighters in Somalia
Ayub Abdirizak was independently confirmed to be in Somalia in early 2025 by DW; this picture was posted on one of his Facebook accounts in JanuaryImage: Yacqwub Siyaad Page/Facebook

Ayub seems to take pride in detailing the violence of his youth in Somalia for his online followers. "I left my family when I was 13 years old and took a gun," Ayub, who is now in his late 30s, says in a YouTube video. He tells viewers that he fought in more than 30 battles when he "used to be a clan militant."

Several sources, including a contact close to the current Puntland administration, told DW and ARD that Ayub was among the hijackers who held ships and hostages for ransom during the peak years of piracy off the Horn of Africa. Two seamen on a ship that was under the control of pirates from March 2010 through December 2012 told us their captors included a man called Ayub, who was tall and slim and spoke with a deep, resonant voice. 

Life in Germany

As DW and ARD were able to confirm, Ayub first entered Germany in 2017. 

He applied for asylum, but his application was rejected in 2020. However, he was allowed to stay as a "tolerated" refugee, a status that comes with fewer rights than recognized asylum.

According to his Facebook page, Ayub lived in Hamburg. Several short TikTok clips posted in 2022 show him in the city and elsewhere in northern Germany with friends.

But events would soon draw him back to Somalia.

On February 6, 2023, violence erupted in Las Anod, the capital of the Sool region. The dominant Dhulbahante clan, which has long sought to separate from Somaliland, seems to have the backing of the Puntland regional administration in its efforts.

Hundreds of people were killed in the initial clashes; hundreds of thousands more were displaced. 

Ayub Abdirizak in a car's moonroof, wearing sunglasses and a microphone and talking to supporters
Ayub Abdirizak speaking to supporters when he visited his home country in November 2023 in a video uploaded to his YouTube channelImage: kabtanayuub133/YouTube

As a tolerated foreign national, Ayub was not officially permitted to travel freely. However, in November 2023, he posted a clip of a trip to Somalia, where he was greeted and cheered by supporters. One video, published on November 10, 2023, features Ayub alongside a group of fighters, sitting on a military vehicle and firing a Russian-developed anti-aircraft cannon. 

In fact, research by ARD and DW found that Ayub made at least one round trip to Somalia while residing in Germany. The last video showing him in Germany was uploaded to his TikTok in July 2024. He is seen walking in fatigues past the town hall of Neubrandenburg in the northeasternmost state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. 

In late 2024, Ayub left Germany and returned to Somalia. DW and ARD were able to confirm that he has since joined the Puntland Defense Force.

Another voice of hate from Germany

At least one other Somali war influencer continues to incite hatred from within Germany. Yacqwub Siyaad preaches violence to more than half a million followers on Facebook and about 230,000 on TikTok.  

In several videos posted in 2023, Yacqwub, who shares Ayub's cause, encourages his followers to attack their opponents: "Shell them day and night and then at last overrun their camp, cut off their heads."

In another, he says: "These pigs are mine. I will drive them out of their holes and dance on their corpses." He calls on viewers to "go to war" and "slaughter the enemy." Being wounded or even killed, he claims, "is happiness." 

Yacqwub openly expresses his homophobia: "Kill those creatures. Remove them from society. Flog them." 

Confirmed by DW and ARD's research, Yacqwub resides near Düsseldorf. He openly expresses hostility toward Germany. In a TikTok video, he says he lives "among infidels in the country of infidels." 

Yacqwub Siyadd in uniform and with an AK-47 in his hand
This photo of Yacqwub Siyaad holding an AK-47 was posted to Facebook in August 2023Image: Yacqwub Siyaad Page/Facebook

Like Ayub, Yacqwub has traveled to Somalia since moving to Germany. In the summer of 2023, a few months into the Las Anod conflict, he shared a picture of himself wearing a uniform alongside armed fighters. Another image shows him holding an AK-47. And, in a video clip, he is meeting a group of combatants, likely in one of the region's desert areas.

Currently, he is back in Germany. Returning to Somalia does not appear to be a viable option for Yacqwub — he would risk being arrested upon arrival. In January 2025, a Puntland military court sentenced him in absentia to 10 years in prison on charges of using his YouTube channel to spread disinformation. The circumstances that led to this verdict are unclear. 

Influencers' 'information warfare'

Influencers from abroad play a "very destructive role" in Somalia and have a "major impact" on the situation, said Moustafa Ahmad, a security analyst based in Somaliland. He describes their online activity as "information warfare."

Yacquub Siyaad in front of a wall which displays his name
Yacqwub in a post on YouTube in June 2025Image: youtube.com | Yacquub Siyaad

In addition to spreading hate messages, Yacqwub uses his social media platforms to raise money within the Somali diaspora. He calls on his female followers to "sell your gold and donate the money."

Jamal Osman, a Somali journalist working for international media, said war influencers had sometimes raised tens of thousands of euros within an hour — money that "is often used to buy weapons."

Osman describes Ayub as charismatic: "He knows what buttons to press to provoke people into action."

Well-connected in Germany

The influencers are known in the Somali community in Germany. DW and ARD talked to one Somali who has been living in Germany for several years and has been monitoring Ayub's and Yacqwub's social media activities for a long time. He said there was a simple reason why they can post virtually anything they want without fear of the authorities: "They speak Somali — and hardly anyone understands it." He said anyone who did would still be unlikely to report the influencers. "Most people are afraid of them".

Their fame has even made Ayub and Yacqwub sought-after interlocutors within the Somali diaspora, where they are seen by some as effective at attracting attention to causes and mobilizing support.

During his time in Germany, Ayub appears to have maintained a good relationship with Mohamed Abdulahi, the chairman of the nonprofit Somali-European Cooperation e.V. (SEKO). In a video, Abdulahi expresses his deep appreciation for Ayub's contributions to the organization's success. "I salute you, Kaptan Ayub," Abdulahi says. "Thank you so very much." In another clip, published in 2022, Abdulahi is talking to both Ayub and Yacqwub, sitting right between them. When introducing Ayub, Abdulahi refers to him as a "role model who plays a major role to assist the Somali people."

Ayub Abdirizak sitting in front of a picture wall with a raised finger
In this video, posted on on YouTube in December 2023, Ayub calls on his followers to "take the guns and fight"Image: youtube.com | Qorane Ismail Abdi

ARD and DW presented Abdulahi with several examples of the influencers' efforts at incitement. He admitted the content was "brutal" and "not good," and that this needed to be investigated and condemned. He said, however, that he was "not the one to judge" and that one must also take into account that these statements were made in the context of war, where there are always different sides and perspectives. He said repeatedly that he had not seen those videos before.

Abdulahi called his relationship with Ayub "friendship" and said, "You can just work really well with him." He said SEKO had approached Ayub and Yacqwub in the past to "ask them for support in reaching people so they can make an announcement for us."

When asked whether he could imagine asking for their support in the future, Abdulahi was evasive. After repeated questioning, he acknowledged that, having watched the videos, it "is not good to keep receiving support from them."

Close ties to the president

Back in Somalia, Ayub continues to maintain an active presence across his social media platforms. In one video, he says he returned "although I could have a nice life in Germany. My family lives in Germany, and if I don't work there, I receive welfare." This year, he has posted several photos of himself wearing the uniform of the Puntland Defense Force. "I swear I will give you $20,000," he says in a video posted in April. "I pledge that amount of $20,000 if you found an armed militia." 

Ayub Abdirizak one row behind Puntland President Deni, who sits in a golden chair
Right behind the Puntland President Deni (front left), Ayub can be seen wearing a baseball cap in this picture, posted to Facebook in April 2025Image: Ayub Abdirizak/Facebook

Ayub's videos suggest that he wields some influence in the region. He has shared pictures and videos that document his personal relationship with Puntland President Said Abdullahi Deni. One video posted in early 2025 shows Deni visiting Ayub in the hospital.

Because of his close ties with the administration, Ayub would understand that he "can commit crimes with impunity," Osman said. There are typically no consequences for illegal acts for those who belong to powerful clans or have financial means, he said. "You can kill 10 people and walk on the streets the next day," he said. "That is how Somalia works."

In Germany, however, the influencers' actions might have consequences. A police spokesperson confirmed an investigation into Yacqwub's posts.

"The state security division of the Düsseldorf police is currently investigating a possible criminal offense in connection with the suspicion of incitement," he wrote. 

And "Kabtan Ayub" could also soon be a concern for the German authorities again. In a video posted on TikTok on Tuesday, he seems to have returned to Europe. He is seen driving on what appears to be a highway in France. The caption of the video: "We have been separated for some time, Europe. Is everything alright?"

Ayub Abdirizak and Yacqwub Siyaad did not reply to questions sent by DW and ARD.

Edited by: Mathias Bölinger

Fact-checking by: Julia Bayer

Copy editing by: Milan Gagnon

Legal support by: Florian Wagenknecht

 

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